Two reports out this week worth paying attention to which could greatly impact oil prices at a crucial moment in which leaders in Tehran are desperately urging China to purchase more Iranian crude: 

First, Reuters notes China continued importing Iranian oil in July for the second month since a US sanctions waiver ended, though at greatly diminished levels compared to the year prior, citing numbers from three data firms:

According to the firms, which track tanker movements, between 4.4 million and 11 million barrels of Iranian crude were discharged into China last month, or 142,000 to 360,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The upper end of that range would mean July imports still added up to close to half of their year-earlier level despite sanctions.

And second, this via CNBC early this week, Brent and WTI price could crash if China buys Iranian oil.

 Bank of America is warning oil prices could potentially crash by $30 a barrel if China ramps up Iranian crude purchases. Reverses Loss After China’s Stronger Yuan Fix The report summarized:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch warns the oil price could slip sharply if China buys Iranian oil. Beijing could undermine Washington’s foreign policy stance by ignoring U.S. sanctions placed on Iran.

BofA is keeping its $60 per barrel price estimate in place for 2020.

Currently the Trump administration puts Iran’s oil exports at a range of 50-70 percent going to China, and with around 30 percent going to Syria.

President Trump’s sanctions were meant to choke off Iran’s oil exports, its main source of income. But our investigation shows China and other countries are defying them, underscoring the difficulty the administration has had in countering Iran. 

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